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Showing posts from April 19, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic, an update

I needed to update my model through April 20. I have not changed the model parameters for two weeks, and I only had slight changes before. Thus, the model is stable and predictive, given the faulty, incomplete data at hand. The model points out that the reported number of deaths around the world is lagging. For the world, my cautious estimate is 30,000 missing COVID-19 deaths in late March and April, see Figures 1 and 2. My simple model points out clearly that the more complex models may not be predictive, while fitting the erratic data better.

My friend ecologist, Professor Bill Rees, just reminded me that his mentor, Crawford "Buzz" Holling, insisted on repeating to his teams whenever they got bogged down in disputes over accuracy vs precision: "It is better to be approximately correct than very precisely wrong."



The New York Times just reported 28,000 of incremental deaths worldwide since January 2020.  Most of these deaths occurred in late March and April 2020,…