After having read the convincing "Peak Oil? - Not in Norway" piece in the World Oil, you may want to recalibrate your senses by looking carefully at the four graphs below. Click on each one of them if you want to see a high-resolution image.
Appendix A in Patzek and Croft (2010).
When oil production rates from all the 65 fields in the first graph are summed up, a fundamental Hubbert curve emerges with a clearly visible peak in 2001-2002. The most recent data (the blue step line) from the Energy Information Administration end in 2011. The new deposits of oil in the old fields - accessed with waterfloods and smart multilateral wells - give rise to the small blue Hubbert curve that in no way can reverse the overall decline.
Read more here. You may agree that the peak of the total oil rate from the Norwegian offshore fields was reached in 2002, assurances to the contrary by the good Norwegian professor notwithstanding.
So here is the bottom line:
- Am I suggesting that no more oil will be discovered on the Norwegian continental shelf, especially up north towards the North Pole? Of course I am not, and significant new oil will be discovered.
- Will the ultimate oil production from the Norwegian shelf be more than shown in the last figure? Yes.
- Will Statoil and other operators be able to reverse the generally declining production rate and exceed the 2002 peak? Almost certainly not.
- Will Statoil rest on its considerable laurels? Never. Statoil is rapidly expanding its operations to North and South America, and Africa. Statoil's research budget in North America is now 1/2 of its global research outlays.
- Do most professors of management, and IMF or the World Bank experts, understand rudiments of oil production? Choose your answer carefully, because this is a test. If you answered "no," you passed.