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Is U.S. Shale Oil & Gas Production Peaking? Part I: Gas Production

Part I of this post shows my calculations of ultimate gas recovery from the Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville and Marcellus shales.  They might deliver 6-7 years of natural gas consumption in the U.S. in 2015, or might deliver only 3 years worth of U.S. gas consumption.  In Part II, I will show my calculations of ultimate recovery of oil and gas in the Eagle Ford and Bakken shales that ultimately might deliver 6-12 months of additional gas consumption.  I will also discuss the physical reasons for the negative impact oil production from these two shales has had on global oil prices. As Asjylyn Loder and others at Bloomberg have noted , another 19 billion dollars of debt of shale oil and gas producers is going into default as of the second week of March, 2016: Since the start of 2015, 48 oil and gas producers have gone bankrupt owing more than $17 billion, according to law firm Haynes and Boone. Fitch Ratings Ltd. predicts $70 billion of energy, metal and mining defa...

What To Do?

When I share with people my assessments of where the Earthlings are stumbling rather blindly, my listeners often say: "Oh, you are such a pessimist! What would you do differently?" My short answer is: "Stop, face reality, and think. Facing reality is not pessimism. Do not try to be a better, more obedient sheep, whose sheephood is certified by a Harvard et al. at a huge expense. Squealer teaching Molly a new slogan she will  recite with unbending conviction and lead other sheep in repeating it.  Think of Fox News, MSNBC, Facebook, Rush Limbaugh, most newspapers, and almost all glossy magazines on sale in the U.S.  I can think of only four magazines that appear not to be run by the U.S. pigdom. For those who have read and understood " Animal Farm " by George Orwell, let me remind you the fate of Boxer, a powerful horse, who dedicated his life to hard labor for the good of others, and was greatly admired by all animals. With his strong muscles and persistenc...