tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post3401035121760933053..comments2024-03-19T00:06:09.224-05:00Comments on LifeItself: Disruptive Technologies? Really?!Tadeusz (Tad) Patzekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17701598417132574218noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-38029235691785783872013-06-03T13:37:25.389-05:002013-06-03T13:37:25.389-05:00Andrew,
I would encourage all readers of this blo...Andrew,<br /><br />I would encourage all readers of this blog to read your thorough analysis entitled "Drilling Faster Just To Stay Still: A Proposal To Use ‘Production Per Unit Effort’ (PPUE) As An Indicator Of Peak Oil" at<br /><br />www.southernlimitsnz.com/2013/05/drilling-faster-just-to-stay-still.html<br /><br />Thank you, TadTadeusz (Tad) Patzekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17701598417132574218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-81217647119829510032013-06-03T11:24:25.460-05:002013-06-03T11:24:25.460-05:00I think the most telling phrase in this informativ...I think the most telling phrase in this informative piece is 'Unnoticed by the public'. There you have the whole thing encapsulated in the proverbial nutshell. The 'public' expects fuel to appear, Until gas fails to come out of pumps or cookers, the 'public' will never notice anything wrong. Being told that things are fine is much more comforting...I would prefer that comfort too!<br />In casual conversations, I've tried to point out that the cost of extraction of energy is getting close to the value of energy produced. when they reach parity, civilisation ends. I've pretty much given up on that one.<br />There is more denial over this issue now, than there is about climate change. At least with climate change we are beginning to see its effects at first hand. But with energy depletion, supermarkets and gas stations are still full and functioning. Rising food prices and unemployment are just the fault of the current government. The fact that both need constant inputs of cheap energy is dismissed as an irrelevance.<br />Energy has been on tap (at least in the nations of the developed world) for longer than anyone can remember. Fuel is fuel, no matter how much we burn, there will always be more.<br />I want a Nobel prize for cornucopian economics!!NJP1http://www.endofmore.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-38561591664689142362013-06-02T23:32:31.802-05:002013-06-02T23:32:31.802-05:00Hi Tad,
I totally agree. It is an increase in eff...Hi Tad,<br /><br />I totally agree. It is an increase in effort for the same (or only slightly better) results.<br /><br />I have recently done some work on PPUE for oil rigs which may be of some relevance to you. It looks like my first link didn't work, here it is directly to my blog: http://www.southernlimitsnz.com/2013/05/drilling-faster-just-to-stay-still.html<br /><br />"We can see that PPUE for most regions peaked around 2000. The big exceptions being Canada in 1992 and Europe and Africa in the mid 2000s. What this means for the majority of the world is that in little over ten years the average number of barrels of oil a single rig produces has almost halved. Put another way oil companies have had to double the number of rigs in operation just to maintain oil production at 2000 levels. This is the very definition of drilling faster just to stay still."<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />Andrew<br />Me, Myself, I - all threehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06530368560314941899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-8253684364910434202013-06-02T19:26:24.425-05:002013-06-02T19:26:24.425-05:00....Also, from the plot of incremental gas product.......Also, from the plot of incremental gas production per incremental gas well it follows that ever since the global peak of production in Texas in 1971, the rate of replacement of gas production hovered just above zero or was slightly negative. In other words, an increase of gas production rate in 2004, was achieved by drilling lots of new wells. The incremental productivity per incremental well became slightly positive after 2004, and a little later it became negative again. The new horizontal wells in Texas could not outpace the overall decline of productivity of all gas wells. Tadeusz (Tad) Patzekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17701598417132574218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-67948288497402469222013-06-02T17:13:29.119-05:002013-06-02T17:13:29.119-05:00Hi Andrew,
In order to maintain gas production, t...Hi Andrew,<br /><br />In order to maintain gas production, the new wells must offset the decline of old wells, including the older new wells. This could be achieved by having fewer, fabulously productive and slowly declining gas wells, or by drilling a huge number of good, but quickly declining wells, and then continuing the massive drilling program for as long as possible. It seems to me that in Texas we have achieved the latter and we are sentenced to drilling more of the more expensive wells.Tadeusz (Tad) Patzekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17701598417132574218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-48516609198140332862013-06-02T00:37:47.932-05:002013-06-02T00:37:47.932-05:00Hi Tad,
I posted the below on resilience.org but ...Hi Tad,<br /><br />I posted the below on resilience.org but not sure if you read the comments there or not.<br /><br />Interesting work.<br /><br />Your "Production rate of an average gas well in Texas in millions of standard cubic feet per day versus time." is the same as what I have called production per unit effort (PPUE) here for oil rigs: http://www.resilience.org/stor...<br /><br />It is an interesting point you make that "this plot is not definitive, because the production decline in tens <br />of thousands of older gas wells more than offsets the new production <br />from the fewer new, more productive wells." and one that I had not fully considered. You are of course correct that a large number of old, poorly producing wells could mask the new more efficient wells. I think what removes those doubts though is that that individual well counts have sky-rocketed over the past few years and so we can relatively certain that a majority of the wells in the data set are indeed new. Your next graph shows that incremental decline.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />AndrewSouthern Limitshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16121159249197473281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-37806950273589934302013-05-26T14:20:48.468-05:002013-05-26T14:20:48.468-05:00I think McKinsey & Company, and CERA, etc, all...I think McKinsey & Company, and CERA, etc, all believe what they say, and that they are a very natural product of this culture. <br /><br />US peak oil production and the Gold Standard forced us to live with reality. But we managed - temporarily - to suspended reality for 4 decades and lived off of "other country's resources." <br /><br />So after 4 decades of stolen/borrowed-prosperity, our Inverted Pyramid Culture Naturally Selected for a population that no longer has a strong grip on reality - including most of it's "successful" leaders.<br /><br />The CERAs, McKinsey & Company's, and all those who "follow" them, will be Naturally Selected For out of the gene pool when the Inverted Pyramid can no longer be maintained (deafening applause here).<br /><br />What will become of the HUGE pile of "middlemen" (see "finance, insurance, real estate.."), who will soon be mostly unnecessary?<br /><br />Hmmm... if we here at Tad's Blog are as kind, compassionate and thoughtful as we would all like to believe we are... Maybe we should take a page from Douglas Adam's "HitchHiker's Guide to the Galaxy" : we should build McKinsey & Company an Arc, and call it "Arc B" ... and give them all a good farewell party... ;)<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-76853922929753724302013-05-25T12:55:10.097-05:002013-05-25T12:55:10.097-05:00Yes, the power of modern propaganda campaigns is a...Yes, the power of modern propaganda campaigns is awesome. Orwell and Barneys would be surprised how much reality surpassed their predictions. With this magnificent power in their hands, the modern propagandists can manipulate billions of people and suck them dry of their savings and investments. And the naive greedy people willingly participate in this dance macabre. Tadeusz (Tad) Patzekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17701598417132574218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-74427338122654661132013-05-25T01:47:28.594-05:002013-05-25T01:47:28.594-05:00Thanks for that, and this 3x of course directly re...Thanks for that, and this 3x of course directly retaken in the media, like for instance in :<br />http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2013/05/23/ces-technologies-qui-vont-transformer-le-monde_3415893_3234.htmlyvesThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00225964326142677776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4793397038214118285.post-39811507482074537772013-05-24T23:55:21.404-05:002013-05-24T23:55:21.404-05:00Well straight away mobile internet is going to add...Well straight away mobile internet is going to add between 4-11 trillion, and renewables <0.5. This report has no meaning for me at all. I'm sure it would be fun to read and disagree with everything, but I wont. I believe in economics efficiency is to do with man hours/labour units or money, yes it is production, but production divided by something, not just overall production.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com